| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w19248 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 19248 |
| Macroeconomic Dynamics Near the ZLB: A Tale of Two Countries | |
| S. Borağan Aruoba; Pablo Cuba-Borda; Frank Schorfheide | |
| 发表日期 | 2013-07-25 |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We propose and solve a small-scale New-Keynesian model with Markov sunspot shocks that move the economy between a targeted-inflation regime and a deflation regime and fit it to data from the U.S. and Japan. For the U.S. we find that adverse demand shocks have moved the economy to the zero lower bound (ZLB) in 2009 and an expansive monetary policy has kept it there subsequently. In contrast, Japan has experienced a switch to the deflation regime in 1999 and remained there since then, except for a short period. The two scenarios have drastically different implications for macroeconomic policies. Fiscal multipliers are about 20% smaller in the deflationary regime, despite the economy remaining at the ZLB. While a commitment by the central bank to keep rates near the ZLB doubles the fiscal multipliers in the targeted-inflation regime (U.S.), it has no effect in the deflation regime (Japan). |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Macroeconomics ; Money and Interest Rates ; Monetary Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w19248 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/576923 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | S. Borağan Aruoba,Pablo Cuba-Borda,Frank Schorfheide. Macroeconomic Dynamics Near the ZLB: A Tale of Two Countries. 2013. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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