| 来源类型 | Working Paper
|
| 规范类型 | 报告
|
| DOI | 10.3386/w19250
|
| 来源ID | Working Paper 19250
|
| Overconfidence in Political Behavior |
| Pietro Ortoleva; Erik Snowberg
|
| 发表日期 | 2013-07-25
|
| 出版年 | 2013
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | This paper studies, theoretically and empirically, the role of overconfidence in political behavior. Our model of overconfidence in beliefs predicts that overconfidence leads to ideological extremeness, increased voter turnout, and increased strength of partisan identification. Moreover, the model makes many nuanced predictions about the patterns of ideology in society, and over a person's lifetime. These predictions are tested using unique data that measure the overconfidence, and standard political characteristics, of a nationwide sample of over 3,000 adults. Our predictions, eight in total, find strong support in this data. In particular, we document that overconfidence is a substantively and statistically important predictor of ideological extremeness and voter turnout. |
| 主题 | Econometrics
; Data Collection
; Microeconomics
; Behavioral Economics
; Welfare and Collective Choice
; Economics of Information
|
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w19250
|
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
|
| 引用统计 |
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
|
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/576925
|
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Pietro Ortoleva,Erik Snowberg. Overconfidence in Political Behavior. 2013.
|
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