G2TT
来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w19267
来源IDWorking Paper 19267
The Natural Rate Hypothesis: An idea past its sell-by date
Roger E.A. Farmer
发表日期2013-08-01
出版年2013
语种英语
摘要Central banks throughout the world predict inflation with new-Keynesian models where, after a shock, the unemployment rate returns to its so called "natural rate'. That assumption is called the Natural Rate Hypothesis (NRH). This paper reviews a body of work, published over the last decade, which is critical of the NRH. I argue that the NRH does not hold in the data and I provide an alternative paradigm that explains why it does not hold. I replace the NRH with the assumption that the animal spirits of investors are a fundamental of the economy and I show how to operationalize that idea by constructing an empirical model that outperforms the new-Keynesian Phillips curve. I model animal spirits with a new fundamental that I call the belief function.
主题Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Monetary Policy
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w19267
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/576943
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Roger E.A. Farmer. The Natural Rate Hypothesis: An idea past its sell-by date. 2013.
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