| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w19425 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 19425 |
| Was Stalin Necessary for Russia's Economic Development? | |
| Anton Cheremukhin; Mikhail Golosov; Sergei Guriev; Aleh Tsyvinski | |
| 发表日期 | 2013-09-12 |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper studies structural transformation of Soviet Russia in 1928-1940 from an agrarian to an industrial economy through the lens of a two-sector neoclassical growth model. We construct a large dataset that covers Soviet Russia during 1928-1940 and Tsarist Russia during 1885-1913. We use a two-sector growth model to compute sectoral TFPs as well as distortions and wedges in the capital, labor and product markets. We find that most wedges substantially increased in 1928-1935 and then fell in 1936-1940 relative to their 1885-1913 levels, while TFP remained generally below pre-WWI trends. Under the neoclassical growth model, projections of these estimated wedges imply that Stalin's economic policies led to welfare loss of -24 percent of consumption in 1928-1940, but a +16 percent welfare gain after 1941. A representative consumer born at the start of Stalin's policies in 1928 experiences a reduction in welfare of -1 percent of consumption, a number that does not take into account additional costs of political repression during this time period. We provide three additional counterfactuals: comparison with Japan, comparison with the New Economic Policy (NEP), and assuming alternative post-1940 growth scenarios. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; History ; Financial History ; Development and Growth ; Growth and Productivity |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w19425 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/577101 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Anton Cheremukhin,Mikhail Golosov,Sergei Guriev,et al. Was Stalin Necessary for Russia's Economic Development?. 2013. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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