| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w19469 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 19469 |
| Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling | |
| Serena Ng; Jonathan H. Wright | |
| 发表日期 | 2013-09-26 |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper provides a survey of business cycle facts, updated to take account of recent data. Emphasis is given to the Great Recession which was unlike most other post-war recessions in the US in being driven by deleveraging and financial market factors. We document how recessions with financial market origins are different from those driven by supply or monetary policy shocks. This helps explain why economic models and predictors that work well at some times do poorly at other times. We discuss challenges for forecasters and empirical researchers in light of the updated business cycle facts. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w19469 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/577143 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Serena Ng,Jonathan H. Wright. Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling. 2013. |
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