全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Using the New Products Margin to Predict the Industry-Level Impact of Trade Reform

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w19692
来源ID	Working Paper 19692
	Using the New Products Margin to Predict the Industry-Level Impact of Trade Reform
	Timothy J. Kehoe; Jack M. Rossbach; Kim J. Ruhl
发表日期	2013-12-05
出版年	2013
语种	英语
摘要	This paper develops a methodology for predicting the impact of trade liberalization on exports by industry (3-digit ISIC) based on the pre-liberalization distribution of exports by product (5-digit SITC). Using the results of Kehoe and Ruhl (2013) that much of the growth in trade after trade liberalization is in products that are traded very little or not at all, we predict that industries with a higher share of exports generated by least traded products will experience more growth. Using our methodology, we develop predictions for industry-level changes in trade for the United States and Korea following the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS). As a test for our methodology, we show that it performs significantly better than the applied general equilibrium models originally used for the policy evaluation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
主题	International Economics ; Trade
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w19692
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/577367
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Timothy J. Kehoe,Jack M. Rossbach,Kim J. Ruhl. Using the New Products Margin to Predict the Industry-Level Impact of Trade Reform. 2013.