G2TT
来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w19973
来源IDWorking Paper 19973
Uncertainty Traps
Pablo Fajgelbaum; Edouard Schaal; Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel
发表日期2014-03-13
出版年2014
语种英语
摘要We develop a theory of endogenous uncertainty and business cycles in which short-lived shocks can generate long-lasting recessions. In the model, higher uncertainty about fundamentals discourages investment. Since agents learn from the actions of others, information flows slowly in times of low activity and uncertainty remains high, further discouraging investment. The economy displays uncertainty traps: self-reinforcing episodes of high uncertainty and low activity. While the economy recovers quickly after small shocks, large temporary shocks may have long-lasting effects on the level of activity. The economy is subject to an information externality but uncertainty traps may remain in the efficient allocation. Embedding the mechanism in a standard business cycle framework, we find that endogenous uncertainty increases the persistence of large recessions and improves the performance of the model in accounting for the Great Recession.
主题Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w19973
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/577647
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Pablo Fajgelbaum,Edouard Schaal,Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel. Uncertainty Traps. 2014.
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