| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w19973 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 19973 |
| Uncertainty Traps | |
| Pablo Fajgelbaum; Edouard Schaal; Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel | |
| 发表日期 | 2014-03-13 |
| 出版年 | 2014 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We develop a theory of endogenous uncertainty and business cycles in which short-lived shocks can generate long-lasting recessions. In the model, higher uncertainty about fundamentals discourages investment. Since agents learn from the actions of others, information flows slowly in times of low activity and uncertainty remains high, further discouraging investment. The economy displays uncertainty traps: self-reinforcing episodes of high uncertainty and low activity. While the economy recovers quickly after small shocks, large temporary shocks may have long-lasting effects on the level of activity. The economy is subject to an information externality but uncertainty traps may remain in the efficient allocation. Embedding the mechanism in a standard business cycle framework, we find that endogenous uncertainty increases the persistence of large recessions and improves the performance of the model in accounting for the Great Recession. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w19973 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/577647 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pablo Fajgelbaum,Edouard Schaal,Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel. Uncertainty Traps. 2014. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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