| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w20087 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 20087 |
| Transfer Payments and the Macroeconomy: The Effects of Social Security Benefit Changes, 1952-1991 | |
| Christina D. Romer; David H. Romer | |
| 发表日期 | 2014-05-01 |
| 出版年 | 2014 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | From the early 1950s to the early 1990s, increases in Social Security benefits in the United States varied widely in size and timing, and were only rarely undertaken in response to short-run macroeconomic developments. This paper uses these benefit increases to investigate the macroeconomic effects of changes in transfer payments. It finds a large, immediate, and statistically significant response of consumption to permanent changes in transfers. The response appears to decline at longer horizons, however, and there is no clear evidence of effects on industrial production or employment. These effects differ sharply from the effects of relatively exogenous tax changes: the impact of transfers is faster, but much less persistent and dramatically smaller overall. Finally, we find strong statistical and narrative evidence of a sharply contractionary monetary policy response to permanent benefit increases that is not present for tax changes. This may account for the lower persistence of the consumption effects of transfers and their failure to spread to broader indicators of economic activity. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Fiscal Policy ; Public Economics ; Taxation ; History ; Macroeconomic History |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w20087 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/577760 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Christina D. Romer,David H. Romer. Transfer Payments and the Macroeconomy: The Effects of Social Security Benefit Changes, 1952-1991. 2014. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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