| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w20185 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 20185 |
| Long-Term Damage from the Great Recession in OECD Countries | |
| Laurence M. Ball | |
| 发表日期 | 2014-05-29 |
| 出版年 | 2014 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper estimates the long-term effects of the global recession of 2008-2009 on output in 23 countries. I measure these effects by comparing current estimates of potential output from the OECD and IMF to the path that potential was following in 2007, according to estimates at the time. The losses in potential output range from almost nothing in Australia and Switzerland to more than 30% in Greece, Hungary, and Ireland; the average loss, weighted by economy size, is 8.4%. Most countries have experienced strong hysteresis effects: shortfalls of actual output from pre-recession trends have reduced potential output almost one-for-one. In the hardest-hit economies, the current growth rate of potential is depressed, implying that the level of lost potential is growing over time. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Fiscal Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w20185 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/577858 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Laurence M. Ball. Long-Term Damage from the Great Recession in OECD Countries. 2014. |
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