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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w20298
来源IDWorking Paper 20298
The Long-Run Effects of a Public Policy on Alcohol Tastes and Mortality
Lorenz Kueng; Evgeny Yakovlev
发表日期2014-07-10
出版年2014
语种英语
摘要We study the long-run effects of Russia's anti-alcohol campaign, which dramatically altered the relative supply of hard and light alcohol in the late 1980s. We find that this policy shifted young men's long-run preferences from hard to light alcohol decades later and we estimate the age at which consumers form their tastes. We show that the large beer market expansion in the late 1990s had similar effects on young consumers' tastes, while older consumers' tastes remained largely unchanged. We then link these long-run changes in alcohol consumption patterns to changes in male mortality. The shift from hard to light alcohol reduced incidences of binge drinking substantially, leading to fewer alcohol- related deaths. We conclude that the resulting large cohort differences in current alcohol consumption shares explain a significant part of the recent decrease in male mortality. Simulations suggest that mortality will continue to decrease by another 23% over the next twenty years due to persistent changes in consumer tastes. Program impact evaluations that focus only on contemporaneous effects can therefore severely underestimate the total effect of such public policies that change preferences for goods.
主题Microeconomics ; Households and Firms ; Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w20298
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/577971
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GB/T 7714
Lorenz Kueng,Evgeny Yakovlev. The Long-Run Effects of a Public Policy on Alcohol Tastes and Mortality. 2014.
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