| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w20339 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 20339 |
| Inflating Away the Public Debt? An Empirical Assessment | |
| Jens Hilscher; Alon Raviv; Ricardo Reis | |
| 发表日期 | 2014-07-24 |
| 出版年 | 2014 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We propose and implement a method that provides quantitative estimates of the extent to which higher- than-expected inflation can lower the real value of outstanding government debt. Looking forward, we derive a formula for the debt burden that relies on detailed information about debt maturity and claimholders, and that uses option prices to construct risk-adjusted probability distributions for inflation at different horizons. The estimates suggest that it is unlikely that inflation will lower the US fiscal burden significantly, and that the effect of higher inflation is modest for plausible counterfactuals. If instead inflation is combined with financial repression that ex post extends the maturity of the debt, then the reduction in value can be significant. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Fiscal Policy ; Financial Economics ; Financial Markets |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w20339 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/578012 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jens Hilscher,Alon Raviv,Ricardo Reis. Inflating Away the Public Debt? An Empirical Assessment. 2014. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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