| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w20352 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 20352 |
| The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence From 6,700 Cyclones | |
| Solomon M. Hsiang; Amir S. Jina | |
| 发表日期 | 2014-07-31 |
| 出版年 | 2014 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Does the environment have a causal effect on economic development? Using meteorological data, we reconstruct every country's exposure to the universe of tropical cyclones during 1950-2008. We exploit random within-country year-to-year variation in cyclone strikes to identify the causal effect of environmental disasters on long-run growth. We compare each country's growth rate to itself in the years immediately before and after exposure, accounting for the distribution of cyclones in preceding years. The data reject hypotheses that disasters stimulate growth or that short-run losses disappear following migrations or transfers of wealth. Instead, we find robust evidence that national incomes decline, relative to their pre-disaster trend, and do not recover within twenty years. Both rich and poor countries exhibit this response, with losses magnified in countries with less historical cyclone experience. Income losses arise from a small but persistent suppression of annual growth rates spread across the fifteen years following disaster, generating large and significant cumulative effects: a 90th percentile event reduces per capita incomes by 7.4% two decades later, effectively undoing 3.7 years of average development. The gradual nature of these losses render them inconspicuous to a casual observer, however simulations indicate that they have dramatic influence over the long-run development of countries that are endowed with regular or continuous exposure to disaster. Linking these results to projections of future cyclone activity, we estimate that under conservative discounting assumptions the present discounted cost of "business as usual" climate change is roughly $9.7 trillion larger than previously thought. |
| 主题 | Public Economics ; Development and Growth ; Development ; Growth and Productivity ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Environment ; Regional and Urban Economics ; Regional Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w20352 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/578025 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Solomon M. Hsiang,Amir S. Jina. The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence From 6,700 Cyclones. 2014. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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