| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w20395 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 20395 |
| Import Competition and the Great U.S. Employment Sag of the 2000s | |
| Daron Acemoglu; David Autor; David Dorn; Gordon H. Hanson; Brendan Price | |
| 发表日期 | 2014-08-21 |
| 出版年 | 2014 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Even before the Great Recession, U.S. employment growth was unimpressive. Between 2000 and 2007, the economy gave back the considerable gains in employment rates it had achieved during the 1990s, with major contractions in manufacturing employment being a prime contributor to the slump. The U.S. employment "sag" of the 2000s is widely recognized but poorly understood. In this paper, we explore the contribution of the swift rise of import competition from China to sluggish U.S. employment growth. We find that the increase in U.S. imports from China, which accelerated after 2000, was a major force behind recent reductions in U.S. manufacturing employment and that, through input-output linkages and other general equilibrium effects, it appears to have significantly suppressed overall U.S. job growth. We apply industry-level and local labor market-level approaches to estimate the size of (a) employment losses in directly exposed manufacturing industries, (b) employment effects in indirectly exposed upstream and downstream industries inside and outside manufacturing, and (c) the net effects of conventional labor reallocation, which should raise employment in non-exposed sectors, and Keynesian multipliers, which should reduce employment in non-exposed sectors. Our central estimates suggest net job losses of 2.0 to 2.4 million stemming from the rise in import competition from China over the period 1999 to 2011. The estimated employment effects are larger in magnitude at the local labor market level, consistent with local general equilibrium effects that amplify the impact of import competition. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; Trade ; Labor Economics ; Labor Supply and Demand |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w20395 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/578069 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Daron Acemoglu,David Autor,David Dorn,et al. Import Competition and the Great U.S. Employment Sag of the 2000s. 2014. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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