全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Procyclical and Countercyclical Fiscal Multipliers: Evidence from OECD Countries

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w20533
来源ID	Working Paper 20533
	Procyclical and Countercyclical Fiscal Multipliers: Evidence from OECD Countries
	Daniel Riera-Crichton; Carlos A. Vegh; Guillermo Vuletin
发表日期	2014-09-25
出版年	2014
语种	英语
摘要	Using non-linear methods, we argue that existing estimates of government spending multipliers in expansion and recession may yield biased results by ignoring whether government spending is increasing or decreasing. In the case of OECD countries, the problem originates in the fact that, contrary to one’s priors, it is not always the case that government spending is going up in recessions (i.e., acting countercyclically). In almost as many cases, government spending is actually going down (i.e., acting procyclically). Since the economy does not respond symmetrically to government spending increases or decreases, the “true” long-run multiplier for bad times (and government spending going up) turns out to be 2.3 compared to 1.3 if we just distinguish between recession and expansion. In extreme recessions, the long-run multiplier reaches 3.1.
主题	Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; International Economics ; International Macroeconomics
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w20533
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/578207
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Daniel Riera-Crichton,Carlos A. Vegh,Guillermo Vuletin. Procyclical and Countercyclical Fiscal Multipliers: Evidence from OECD Countries. 2014.