| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w20617 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 20617 |
| Credit, Bankruptcy, and Aggregate Fluctuations | |
| Makoto Nakajima; José-Víctor Ríos-Rull | |
| 发表日期 | 2014-10-27 |
| 出版年 | 2014 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We ask two questions related to how access to credit affects the nature of business cycles. First, does the standard theory of unsecured credit account for the high volatility and procyclicality of credit and the high volatility and countercyclicality of bankruptcy filings found in U.S. data? Yes, it does, but only if we explicitly model recessions as displaying countercyclical earnings risk (i.e., rather than having all households fare slightly worse than normal during recessions, we ensure that more households than normal fare very poorly). Second, does access to credit smooth aggregate consumption or aggregate hours worked, and if so, does it matter with respect to the nature of business cycles? No, it does not; in fact, consumption is 20 percent more volatile when credit is available. The interest rate premia increase in recessions because of higher bankruptcy risk discouraging households from using credit. This finding contradicts the intuition that access to credit helps households to smooth their consumption. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Behavioral Economics ; Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles ; Money and Interest Rates ; Other ; Law and Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w20617 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/578291 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Makoto Nakajima,José-Víctor Ríos-Rull. Credit, Bankruptcy, and Aggregate Fluctuations. 2014. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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