G2TT
来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w20617
来源IDWorking Paper 20617
Credit, Bankruptcy, and Aggregate Fluctuations
Makoto Nakajima; José-Víctor Ríos-Rull
发表日期2014-10-27
出版年2014
语种英语
摘要We ask two questions related to how access to credit affects the nature of business cycles. First, does the standard theory of unsecured credit account for the high volatility and procyclicality of credit and the high volatility and countercyclicality of bankruptcy filings found in U.S. data? Yes, it does, but only if we explicitly model recessions as displaying countercyclical earnings risk (i.e., rather than having all households fare slightly worse than normal during recessions, we ensure that more households than normal fare very poorly). Second, does access to credit smooth aggregate consumption or aggregate hours worked, and if so, does it matter with respect to the nature of business cycles? No, it does not; in fact, consumption is 20 percent more volatile when credit is available. The interest rate premia increase in recessions because of higher bankruptcy risk discouraging households from using credit. This finding contradicts the intuition that access to credit helps households to smooth their consumption.
主题Microeconomics ; Behavioral Economics ; Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles ; Money and Interest Rates ; Other ; Law and Economics
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w20617
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/578291
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GB/T 7714
Makoto Nakajima,José-Víctor Ríos-Rull. Credit, Bankruptcy, and Aggregate Fluctuations. 2014.
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