| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w20663 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 20663 |
| Trade Adjustment Dynamics and the Welfare Gains from Trade | |
| George Alessandria; Horag Choi; Kim Ruhl | |
| 发表日期 | 2014-11-10 |
| 出版年 | 2014 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We study how the transitions following a trade reform are shaped by the time it takes for new exporters to grow in the export market. We introduce time and risk into the fixed-variable cost tradeoff central to general equilibrium heterogeneous firm trade models: Investing in exporting gradually and stochastically lowers the costs of exporting. The model captures the tendency of new exporters to export on a small scale, to have low survival rates, and to take time to grow into large exporters. In the model, aggregate trade dynamics arise from producer-level decisions to invest in lowering their future variable export costs, and tariff reforms generate time-varying trade elasticities. We show that the gains from reducing tariffs arise from substituting away from firm creation and towards export capacity. This is in stark contrast to the static models that dominate the literature. The strength of this substitution is determined largely by the size of new exporters and their ability to grow into successful exporters. We calibrate the model and estimate the welfare gains from reducing tariffs, which differ substantially from the long-run changes in consumption or trade. We show that the welfare gain cannot be recovered from a static trade model or from formulas based on those models. Because aggregate trade grows slowly, the long-run effects are strongly discounted and, thus, are not the key determinants of the welfare gains from a change in trade policy. We also find that policy prescriptions based on static models can predict a loss from trade reform when our dynamic model predicts a gain. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; International Economics ; Trade |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w20663 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/578337 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | George Alessandria,Horag Choi,Kim Ruhl. Trade Adjustment Dynamics and the Welfare Gains from Trade. 2014. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
