| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w20715 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 20715 |
| A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment | |
| Laurence Ball; Sandeep Mazumder | |
| 发表日期 | 2014-12-01 |
| 出版年 | 2014 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor-market slack is captured by the level of short-term unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including the failure of high total unemployment since 2008 to reduce inflation greatly. The fit of our equation is especially good when we measure core inflation with the Cleveland Fed’s series on weighted median inflation. We also propose a more general Phillips curve in which core inflation depends on short-term unemployment and on expected inflation as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters. This specification fits U.S. inflation since 1985, including both the anchored-expectations period of the 2000s and the preceding period when expectations were determined by past levels of inflation. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w20715 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/578388 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Laurence Ball,Sandeep Mazumder. A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment. 2014. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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