| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w20719 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 20719 |
| Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from U.S. Historical Data | |
| Valerie A. Ramey; Sarah Zubairy | |
| 发表日期 | 2014-12-01 |
| 出版年 | 2014 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper investigates whether U.S. government spending multipliers differ according to two potentially important features of the economy: (1) the amount of slack and (2) whether interest rates are near the zero lower bound. We shed light on these questions by analyzing new quarterly historical U.S. data covering multiple large wars and deep recessions. We estimate a state-dependent model in which impulse responses and multipliers depend on the average dynamics of the economy in each state. We find no evidence that multipliers differ by the amount of slack in the economy. These results are robust to many alternative specifications. The results are less clear for the zero lower bound. For the entire sample, there is no evidence of elevated multipliers near the zero lower bound. When World War II is excluded, some point estimates suggest higher multipliers during the zero lower bound state, but they are not statistically different from the normal state. Our results imply that, contrary to recent conjecture, government spending multipliers were not necessarily higher than average during the Great Recession. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy ; History ; Macroeconomic History |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w20719 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/578392 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Valerie A. Ramey,Sarah Zubairy. Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from U.S. Historical Data. 2014. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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