| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w20824 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 20824 |
| Central Bank Credibility: An Historical and Quantitative Exploration | |
| Michael D. Bordo; Pierre L. Siklos | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-01-12 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In this paper we provide empirical measures of central bank credibility and augment these with historical narratives from eleven countries. To the extent we are able to apply reliable institutional information we can also indirectly assess their role in influencing the credibility of the monetary authority. We focus on measures of inflation expectations, the mean reversion properties of inflation, and indicators of exchange rate risk. In addition we place some emphasis on whether credibility is particularly vulnerable during financial crises, whether its evolution is a function of the type of crisis or its kind (i.e., currency, banking, sovereign debt crises). We find credibility changes over time are frequent and can be significant. Nevertheless, no robust empirical connection between the size of an economic shock (e.g., the Great Depression) and loss of credibility is found. Second, the frequency with which the world economy experiences economic and financial crises, institutional factors (i.e., the quality of governance) plays an important role in preventing a loss of credibility. Third, credibility shocks are dependent on the type of monetary policy regime in place. Finally, credibility is most affected by whether the shock can be associated with policy errors. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Monetary Policy ; History ; Macroeconomic History |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w20824 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/578499 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael D. Bordo,Pierre L. Siklos. Central Bank Credibility: An Historical and Quantitative Exploration. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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