| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w20857 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 20857 |
| News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries | |
| Rabah Arezki; Valerie A. Ramey; Liugang Sheng | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-01-19 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output–the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; International Economics ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w20857 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/578532 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rabah Arezki,Valerie A. Ramey,Liugang Sheng. News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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