| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w20872 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 20872 |
| Macroeconomic Volatility and External Imbalances | |
| Alessandra Fogli; Fabrizio Perri | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-01-26 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Does macroeconomic volatility/uncertainty affects accumulation of net foreign assets? In OECD economies over the period 1970-2012, changes in country specific aggregate volatility are, after controlling for a wide array of factors, significantly positively associated with net foreign asset position. An increase in volatility (measured as the standard deviation of GDP growth) of 0.5% over period of 10 years is associated with an increase in the net foreign assets of around 8% of GDP. A standard open economy model with time varying aggregate uncertainty can quantitatively account for this relationship. The key mechanism is precautionary motive: more uncertainty induces residents to save more, and higher savings are in part channeled into foreign assets. We conclude that both data and theory suggest uncertainty/volatility is an important determinant of the medium/long run evolution of external imbalances in developed countries. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w20872 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/578547 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alessandra Fogli,Fabrizio Perri. Macroeconomic Volatility and External Imbalances. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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