| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w20882 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 20882 |
| The Power of Forward Guidance Revisited | |
| Alisdair McKay; Emi Nakamura; Jón Steinsson | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-01-26 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In recent years, central banks have increasingly turned to “forward guidance” as a central tool of monetary policy, especially as interest rates around the world have hit the zero lower bound. Standard monetary models imply that far future forward guidance is extremely powerful: promises about far future interest rates have huge effects on current economic outcomes, and these effects grow with the horizon of the forward guidance. We show that the power of forward guidance is highly sensitive to the assumption of complete markets. If agents face uninsurable income risk and borrowing constraints, a precautionary savings effect tempers their responses to changes in future interest rates. As a consequence, forward guidance has substantially less power to stimulate the economy. In addition, we show that the business cycle dynamics of our incomplete markets model differ substantially from its complete market counterpart. This contrasts with the well-known results of Krusell and Smith (1998). We present approximate representations that can easily be incorporated into standard business cycle models. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Money and Interest Rates ; Monetary Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w20882 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/578557 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alisdair McKay,Emi Nakamura,Jón Steinsson. The Power of Forward Guidance Revisited. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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