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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w20898
来源IDWorking Paper 20898
Nominal GDP Targeting for Developing Countries
Pranjul Bhandari; Jeffrey A. Frankel
发表日期2015-02-02
出版年2015
语种英语
摘要The revival of interest in nominal GDP (NGDP) targeting has come in the context of large advanced economies. We consider the case for NGDP targeting for mid-sized developing countries, in light of their susceptibility to supply shocks and terms of trade shocks. For India, in particular, one major exogenous supply shock is the monsoon rains. NGDP targeting splits the impact of supply shocks automatically between inflation and real GDP growth. In the case of annual inflation targeting (IT), by contrast, the full impact of an adverse supply shock or terms of trade shock is felt as a loss in real GDP alone. NGDP targeting automatically accommodates supply shocks as most central banks with discretion would do anyway, while retaining the advantage of anchoring expectations as rules are designed to do. We outline a simple theoretical model and derive the condition under which an NGDP targeting regime would dominate other regimes such as annual IT for achieving objectives of output and price stability. We go on to estimate for the case of India the parameters needed to ascertain whether the condition holds, particularly the slope of the aggregate supply curve. Estimates suggest that the condition may indeed hold.
主题Macroeconomics ; Monetary Policy ; International Economics ; International Macroeconomics
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w20898
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/578572
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Pranjul Bhandari,Jeffrey A. Frankel. Nominal GDP Targeting for Developing Countries. 2015.
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