| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w20908 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 20908 |
| Trade Reform and Regional Dynamics: Evidence From 25 Years of Brazilian Matched Employer-Employee Data | |
| Rafael Dix-Carneiro; Brian K. Kovak | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-02-02 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We empirically study the dynamics of labor market adjustment following the Brazilian trade reform of the 1990s. We use variation in industry-specific tariff cuts interacted with initial regional industry mix to measure trade-induced local labor demand shocks, and then examine regional and individual labor market responses to those one-time shocks over two decades. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we do not find that the impact of local shocks is dissipated over time through wage-equalizing migration. Instead, we find steadily growing effects of local shocks on regional formal sector wages and employment for 20 years. This finding can be rationalized in a simple equilibrium model with two complementary factors of production, labor and industry-specific factors such as capital, that adjust slowly and imperfectly to shocks. Next, we document rich margins of adjustment induced by the trade reform at the regional and individual level. Workers initially employed in harder hit regions face continuously deteriorating formal labor market outcomes relative to workers employed in less affected regions, and this gap persists even 20 years after the beginning of trade liberalization. Negative local trade shocks induce workers to shift out of the formal tradable sector and into the formal nontradable sector. Non-employment strongly increases in harder-hit regions in the medium run, but in the longer run, non-employed workers eventually find re-employment in the informal sector. Working age population does not react to these local shocks, but formal sector net migration does, consistent with the relative decline of the formal sector and growth of the informal sector in adversely affected regions. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; Trade ; Labor Economics ; Labor Supply and Demand |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w20908 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/578582 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rafael Dix-Carneiro,Brian K. Kovak. Trade Reform and Regional Dynamics: Evidence From 25 Years of Brazilian Matched Employer-Employee Data. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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