全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Life-Cycle Earnings Risk?

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w20913
来源ID	Working Paper 20913
	What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Life-Cycle Earnings Risk?
	Fatih Guvenen; Fatih Karahan; Serdar Ozkan; Jae Song
发表日期	2015-02-02
出版年	2015
语种	英语
摘要	We study the evolution of individual labor earnings over the life cycle using a large panel data set of earnings histories drawn from U.S. administrative records. Using fully nonparametric methods, our analysis reaches two broad conclusions. First, earnings shocks display substantial deviations from lognormality---the standard assumption in the incomplete markets literature. In particular, earnings shocks display strong negative skewness and extremely high kurtosis---as high as 30 compared with 3 for a Gaussian distribution. The high kurtosis implies that in a given year, most individuals experience very small earnings shocks, and a small but non-negligible number experience very large shocks. Second, these statistical properties vary significantly both over the life cycle and with the earnings level of individuals. We also estimate impulse response functions of earnings shocks and find important asymmetries: positive shocks to high-income individuals are quite transitory, whereas negative shocks are very persistent; the opposite is true for low-income individuals. Finally, we use these rich sets of moments to estimate econometric processes with increasing generality to capture these salient features of earnings dynamics.
主题	Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Labor Economics ; Labor Compensation ; Unemployment and Immigration
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w20913
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/578587
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fatih Guvenen,Fatih Karahan,Serdar Ozkan,et al. What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Life-Cycle Earnings Risk?. 2015.