| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w20987 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 20987 |
| Pick Your Poison: The Choices and Consequences of Policy Responses to Crises | |
| Kristin J. Forbes; Michael W. Klein | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-03-02 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Countries choose different strategies when responding to crises. An important challenge in assessing the impact of these policies is selection bias with respect to relatively time-invariant country characteristics, as well as time-varying values of outcome variables and other policy choices. This paper addresses this challenge by using propensity-score matching to estimate how major reserve sales, large currency depreciations, substantial changes in policy interest rates, and increased controls on capital outflows affect real GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation during two periods marked by crises, 1997 to 2001 and 2007 to 2011. We find that none of these policies yield significant improvements in growth, unemployment, and inflation. Instead, a large increase in interest rates and new capital controls are estimated to cause a significant decline in GDP growth. Sharp currency depreciations may raise GDP growth over time, but only with a lagged effect and after an initial contraction. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; International Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w20987 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/578662 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kristin J. Forbes,Michael W. Klein. Pick Your Poison: The Choices and Consequences of Policy Responses to Crises. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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