G2TT
来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w20987
来源IDWorking Paper 20987
Pick Your Poison: The Choices and Consequences of Policy Responses to Crises
Kristin J. Forbes; Michael W. Klein
发表日期2015-03-02
出版年2015
语种英语
摘要Countries choose different strategies when responding to crises. An important challenge in assessing the impact of these policies is selection bias with respect to relatively time-invariant country characteristics, as well as time-varying values of outcome variables and other policy choices. This paper addresses this challenge by using propensity-score matching to estimate how major reserve sales, large currency depreciations, substantial changes in policy interest rates, and increased controls on capital outflows affect real GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation during two periods marked by crises, 1997 to 2001 and 2007 to 2011. We find that none of these policies yield significant improvements in growth, unemployment, and inflation. Instead, a large increase in interest rates and new capital controls are estimated to cause a significant decline in GDP growth. Sharp currency depreciations may raise GDP growth over time, but only with a lagged effect and after an initial contraction.
主题International Economics ; International Macroeconomics
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w20987
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/578662
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Kristin J. Forbes,Michael W. Klein. Pick Your Poison: The Choices and Consequences of Policy Responses to Crises. 2015.
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