G2TT
来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w21037
来源IDWorking Paper 21037
An Extrapolative Model of House Price Dynamics
Edward L. Glaeser; Charles G. Nathanson
发表日期2015-03-23
出版年2015
语种英语
摘要A modest approximation by homebuyers leads house prices to display three features that are present in the data but usually missing from perfectly rational models: momentum at one-year horizons, mean reversion at five-year horizons, and excess longer-term volatility relative to fundamentals. Valuing a house involves forecasting the current and future demand to live in the surrounding area. Buyers forecast using past transaction prices. Approximating buyers do not adjust for the expectations of past buyers, and instead assume that past prices reflect only contemporaneous demand, as with a capitalization rate formula. Consistent with survey evidence, this approximation leads buyers to expect increases in the market value of their homes after recent house price increases, to fail to anticipate the price busts that follow booms, and to be overconfident in their assessments of the housing market.
主题Microeconomics ; Behavioral Economics ; Regional and Urban Economics
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w21037
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/578708
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Edward L. Glaeser,Charles G. Nathanson. An Extrapolative Model of House Price Dynamics. 2015.
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