| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w21037 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 21037 |
| An Extrapolative Model of House Price Dynamics | |
| Edward L. Glaeser; Charles G. Nathanson | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-03-23 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | A modest approximation by homebuyers leads house prices to display three features that are present in the data but usually missing from perfectly rational models: momentum at one-year horizons, mean reversion at five-year horizons, and excess longer-term volatility relative to fundamentals. Valuing a house involves forecasting the current and future demand to live in the surrounding area. Buyers forecast using past transaction prices. Approximating buyers do not adjust for the expectations of past buyers, and instead assume that past prices reflect only contemporaneous demand, as with a capitalization rate formula. Consistent with survey evidence, this approximation leads buyers to expect increases in the market value of their homes after recent house price increases, to fail to anticipate the price busts that follow booms, and to be overconfident in their assessments of the housing market. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Behavioral Economics ; Regional and Urban Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w21037 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/578708 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Edward L. Glaeser,Charles G. Nathanson. An Extrapolative Model of House Price Dynamics. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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