| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w21092 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 21092 |
| How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence | |
| Olivier Coibion; Yuriy Gorodnichenko; Saten Kumar | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-04-13 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We implement a new survey of firms’ macroeconomic beliefs in New Zealand and document a number of novel stylized facts from this survey. Despite nearly twenty-five years under an inflation targeting regime, there is widespread dispersion in firms’ beliefs about both past and future macroeconomic conditions, especially inflation, with average beliefs about recent and past inflation being much higher than those of professional forecasters. Much of the dispersion in beliefs can be explained by firms’ incentives to collect and process information, i.e. rational inattention motives. Using experimental methods, we find that firms update their beliefs in a Bayesian manner when presented with new information about the economy. But few firms seem to think that inflation is important to their business decisions and therefore they tend to devote few resources to collecting and processing information about inflation. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Money and Interest Rates ; Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w21092 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/578767 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Olivier Coibion,Yuriy Gorodnichenko,Saten Kumar. How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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