| 来源类型 | Working Paper
|
| 规范类型 | 报告
|
| DOI | 10.3386/w21136
|
| 来源ID | Working Paper 21136
|
| How Modern Dictators Survive: An Informational Theory of the New Authoritarianism |
| Sergei Guriev; Daniel Treisman
|
| 发表日期 | 2015-05-04
|
| 出版年 | 2015
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | We develop an informational theory of dictatorship. Dictators survive not because of their use of force or ideology but because they convince the public—rightly or wrongly—that they are competent. Citizens do not observe the dictator's type but infer it from signals inherent in their living standards, state propaganda, and messages sent by an informed elite via independent media. If citizens conclude that the dictator is incompetent, they overthrow him in a revolution. The dictator can invest in making convincing state propaganda, censoring independent media, co-opting the elite, or equipping police to repress attempted uprisings—but he must finance such spending at the expense of the public's living standards. We show that incompetent dictators can survive as long as economic shocks are not too large. Moreover, their reputations for competence may grow over time—even if living standards fall. Censorship and co-optation of the elite are substitutes, but both are complements of propaganda. Due to coordination failure among members of the elite, multiple equilibria emerge. In some equilibria the ruler uses propaganda and co-opts the elite; in others, propaganda is combined with censorship. In the equilibrium with censorship, difficult economic times prompt higher relative spending on censorship and propaganda. The results illuminate tradeoffs faced by various recent dictatorships. |
| 主题 | Public Economics
; National Fiscal Issues
; Other
; Economic Systems
|
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w21136
|
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
|
| 引用统计 |
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
|
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/578810
|
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Sergei Guriev,Daniel Treisman. How Modern Dictators Survive: An Informational Theory of the New Authoritarianism. 2015.
|
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
