| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w21244 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 21244 |
| Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy | |
| Chun Chang; Kaiji Chen; Daniel F. Waggoner; Tao Zha | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-06-08 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We make four contributions in this paper. First, we provide a core of macroeconomic time series usable for systematic research on China. Second, we document, through various empirical methods, the robust findings about striking patterns of trend and cycle. Third, we build a theoretical model that accounts for these facts. Fourth, the model's mechanism and assumptions are corroborated by institutional details, disaggregated data, and banking time series, all of which are distinctive of Chinese characteristics. We argue that preferential credit policy for promoting heavy industries accounts for the unusual cyclical patterns as well as the post-1990s economic transition featured by the persistently rising investment rate, the declining labor income share, and a growing foreign surplus. The departure of our theoretical model from standard ones offers a constructive framework for studying China's modern macroeconomy. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; International Economics ; International Macroeconomics ; Financial Economics ; Financial Markets ; Public Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w21244 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/578919 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chun Chang,Kaiji Chen,Daniel F. Waggoner,et al. Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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