全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w21304
来源ID	Working Paper 21304
	Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores
	Liran Einav; Amy Finkelstein; Raymond Kluender; Paul Schrimpf
发表日期	2015-06-29
出版年	2015
语种	英语
摘要	In recent years, the increased use of “big data” and statistical techniques to score potential transactions has transformed the operation of insurance and credit markets. In this paper, we observe that these widely-used scores are statistical objects that constitute a one-dimensional summary of a potentially much richer heterogeneity, some of which may be endogenous to the specific context in which they are applied. We demonstrate this point empirically using rich data from the Medicare Part D prescription drug insurance program. We show that the “risk scores,” which are designed to predict an individualʼs drug spending and are used by Medicare to customize reimbursement rates to private insurers, do not distinguish between two different sources of spending: underlying health, and responsiveness of drug spending to the insurance contract. Naturally, however, these two determinants of spending have very different implications when trying to predict counterfactual spending under alternative contracts. As a result, we illustrate that once we enrich the theoretical framework to allow individuals to have heterogeneous behavioral responses to the contract, strategic incentives for cream skimming still exist, even in the presence of “perfect” risk scoring under a given contract.
主题	Microeconomics ; Households and Firms ; Financial Economics ; Financial Institutions ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w21304
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/578979
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liran Einav,Amy Finkelstein,Raymond Kluender,et al. Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores. 2015.