全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Which Models Can We Trust to Evaluate Consumer Decision Making? Comment on \u201cChoice Inconsistencies among the Elderly\u201d

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w21387
来源ID	Working Paper 21387
	Which Models Can We Trust to Evaluate Consumer Decision Making? Comment on \u201cChoice Inconsistencies among the Elderly\u201d
	Jonathan D. Ketcham; Nicolai V. Kuminoff; Christopher A. Powers
发表日期	2015-07-27
出版年	2015
语种	英语
摘要	Neoclassical and psychological models of consumer behavior often make divergent predictions for the welfare effects of paternalistic policies, leaving wide scope for researchers’ choice of a model to influence their policy conclusions. We develop a framework to reduce this model uncertainty and apply it to administrative data on consumer decision making in Medicare Part D. Consumers’ choices for prescription drug insurance plans can be explained by Abaluck and Gruber’s (AER 2011) model of utility maximization with psychological biases or by a neoclassical version of their model that precludes such biases. We evaluate these competing hypotheses using nonparametric tests of utility maximization and a trio of model validation tests. We find that 79% of enrollment decisions in Medicare Part D from 2006-2010 satisfied basic axioms of consumer preference theory under the assumptions of full information, zero transaction cost, and no measurement error. The validation tests provide evidence against widespread psychological biases. In particular, we find that precluding psychological biases improves the structural model’s out-of-sample predictions for consumer behavior.
主题	Microeconomics ; Households and Firms ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health ; Poverty and Wellbeing
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w21387
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579062
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jonathan D. Ketcham,Nicolai V. Kuminoff,Christopher A. Powers. Which Models Can We Trust to Evaluate Consumer Decision Making? Comment on \u201cChoice Inconsistencies among the Elderly\u201d. 2015.