全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): On the Welfare and Cyclical Implications of Moderate Trend Inflation

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w21392
来源ID	Working Paper 21392
	On the Welfare and Cyclical Implications of Moderate Trend Inflation
	Guido Ascari; Louis Phaneuf; Eric Sims
发表日期	2015-07-27
出版年	2015
语种	英语
摘要	We offer a comprehensive evaluation of the welfare and cyclical implications of moderate trend inflation. In an extended version of a medium-scale New Keynesian model, recent proposals to increase trend inflation from 2 to 4 percent would generate a consumption-equivalent welfare loss of 3.7 percent based on the non-stochastic steady state and of 6.9 percent based on the stochastic mean. Welfare costs of this magnitude are driven by four main factors: i) multiperiod nominal wage contracting, ii) trend growth in investment-specific and neutral technology, iii) roundaboutness in the U.S. production structure, and iv) and the interaction between trend inflation and shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment (MEI), insofar that this type of shock is sufficiently persistent. Moreover, moderate trend inflation has important cyclical implications. It interacts much more strongly with MEI shocks than with either productivity or monetary shocks.
主题	Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w21392
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579067
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guido Ascari,Louis Phaneuf,Eric Sims. On the Welfare and Cyclical Implications of Moderate Trend Inflation. 2015.