全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Should We Give Up After Solyndra? Optimal Technology R&D Portfolios under Uncertainty

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w21396
来源ID	Working Paper 21396
	Should We Give Up After Solyndra? Optimal Technology R&D Portfolios under Uncertainty
	Mort Webster; Karen Fisher-Vanden; David Popp; Nidhi Santen
发表日期	2015-07-27
出版年	2015
语种	英语
摘要	Global climate change and other environmental challenges require the development of new energy technologies with lower emissions. In the near-term, R&D investments, either by government or the private sector, can bring down the costs of these lower emission technologies. However, the results of R&D are uncertain, and there are many potential technologies that may turn out to play an effective role in the future energy mix. In this paper, we address the problem of allocating R&D across technologies under uncertainty. Specifically, given two technologies, one with lower costs at present, but the other with greater uncertainty in the returns to R&D, how should one allocate the R&D budget? We develop a multi-stage stochastic dynamic programming version of an integrated assessment model of climate and economy that represents endogenous technological change through R&D decisions for two substitutable non-carbon backstop technologies. Using the model, we demonstrate that near-term R&D into the higher cost technology is justified, and that the amount of R&D into the high cost technology increases with both the variance in the uncertainty in returns to R&D and with the skewness of the uncertainty. We also present an illustrative case study of wind and solar photovoltaic technologies, and show that poor R&D results in early periods do not necessarily mean that investment should not continue.
主题	Development and Growth ; Innovation and R& ; D ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Energy ; Environment
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w21396
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579071
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mort Webster,Karen Fisher-Vanden,David Popp,et al. Should We Give Up After Solyndra? Optimal Technology R&D Portfolios under Uncertainty. 2015.