G2TT
来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w21476
来源IDWorking Paper 21476
The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present and Future
James D. Hamilton; Ethan S. Harris; Jan Hatzius; Kenneth D. West
发表日期2015-08-24
出版年2015
语种英语
摘要We examine the behavior, determinants, and implications of the equilibrium level of the real federal funds rate, defined as the rate consistent with full employment and stable inflation in the medium term. We draw three main conclusions. First, the uncertainty around the equilibrium rate is large, and its relationship with trend GDP growth much more tenuous than widely believed. Our narrative and econometric analysis using cross-country data and going back to the 19th Century supports a wide range of plausible central estimates for the current level of the equilibrium rate, from a little over 0% to the pre-crisis consensus of 2%. Second, despite this uncertainty, we are skeptical of the “secular stagnation” view that the equilibrium rate will remain near zero for many years to come. The evidence for secular stagnation before the 2008 crisis is weak, and the disappointing post-2008 recovery is better explained by protracted but ultimately temporary headwinds from the housing supply overhang, household and bank deleveraging, and fiscal retrenchment. Once these headwinds had abated by early 2014, US growth did in fact accelerate to a pace well above potential. Third, the uncertainty around the equilibrium rate implies that a monetary policy rule with more inertia than implied by standard versions of the Taylor rule could be associated with smaller deviations of output and inflation from the Fed’s objectives. Our simulations using the Fed staff’s FRB/US model show that explicit recognition of this uncertainty results in a later but steeper normalization path for the funds rate compared with the median “dot” in the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections.
主题Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Money and Interest Rates ; Monetary Policy
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w21476
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579151
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
James D. Hamilton,Ethan S. Harris,Jan Hatzius,et al. The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present and Future. 2015.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[James D. Hamilton]的文章
[Ethan S. Harris]的文章
[Jan Hatzius]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[James D. Hamilton]的文章
[Ethan S. Harris]的文章
[Jan Hatzius]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[James D. Hamilton]的文章
[Ethan S. Harris]的文章
[Jan Hatzius]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。