全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): The Role of Time Preferences and Exponential-Growth Bias in Retirement Savings

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w21482
来源ID	Working Paper 21482
	The Role of Time Preferences and Exponential-Growth Bias in Retirement Savings
	Gopi Shah Goda; Matthew R. Levy; Colleen Flaherty Manchester; Aaron Sojourner; Joshua Tasoff
发表日期	2015-08-24
出版年	2015
语种	英语
摘要	There is considerable variation in retirement savings within income, age, and educational categories. Using a broad sample of the U.S. population, we elicit time preference parameters from a quasi-hyperbolic discounting model, and perceptions of exponential growth. We find that present bias (PB), the tendency to value utility in the present over the future in a dynamically inconsistent way, and exponential-growth bias (EGB), the tendency to neglect compounding, are prevalent and distinct latent variables. PB, EGB, and the long-run discount factor are all highly significant in predicting retirement savings, even while controlling for measures of IQ and general financial literacy as well as a rich set of demographic controls. We find that lack of self-awareness of these biases has an additional independent negative impact on retirement savings. We assess potential threats to a causal interpretation of our results with a hypothetical choice experiment and several robustness exercises. Finally, we explore potential mechanisms for our findings. If the relationship we estimate is causal, our estimates suggest that eliminating PB and EGB would be associated with an increase in retirement savings of 12%, or as high as 70% using estimates that account for classical measurement error.
主题	Public Economics
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w21482
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579157
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gopi Shah Goda,Matthew R. Levy,Colleen Flaherty Manchester,et al. The Role of Time Preferences and Exponential-Growth Bias in Retirement Savings. 2015.