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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w21569
来源IDWorking Paper 21569
Gradualism in Monetary Policy: A Time-Consistency Problem?
Jeremy C. Stein; Adi Sunderam
发表日期2015-09-21
出版年2015
语种英语
摘要We develop a model of monetary policy with two key features: (i) the central bank has private information about its long-run target for the policy rate; and (ii) the central bank is averse to bond-market volatility. In this setting, discretionary monetary policy is gradualist, or inertial, in the sense that the central bank only adjusts the policy rate slowly in response to changes in its privately-observed target. Such gradualism reflects an attempt to not spook the bond market. However, this effort ends up being thwarted in equilibrium, as long-term rates rationally react more to a given move in short rates when the central bank moves more gradually. The same desire to mitigate bond-market volatility can lead the central bank to lower short rates sharply when publicly-observed term premiums rise. In both cases, there is a time-consistency problem, and society would be better off appointing a central banker who cares less about the bond market. We also discuss the implications of our model for forward guidance once the economy is away from the zero lower bound.
主题Macroeconomics ; Money and Interest Rates ; Monetary Policy
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w21569
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579244
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GB/T 7714
Jeremy C. Stein,Adi Sunderam. Gradualism in Monetary Policy: A Time-Consistency Problem?. 2015.
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