| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w21581 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 21581 |
| Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide | |
| Atif R. Mian; Amir Sufi; Emil Verner | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-09-28 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | An increase in the household debt to GDP ratio in the medium run predicts lower subsequent GDP growth, higher unemployment, and negative growth forecasting errors in a panel of 30 countries from 1960 to 2012. Consistent with the “credit supply hypothesis,” we show that low mortgage spreads predict an increase in the household debt to GDP ratio and a decline in subsequent GDP growth when used as an instrument. The negative relation between the change in household debt to GDP and subsequent output growth is stronger for countries that face stricter monetary policy constraints as measured by a less flexible exchange rate regime, proximity to the zero lower bound, or more external borrowing. A rise in the household debt to GDP ratio is contemporaneously associated with a consumption boom followed by a reversal in the trade deficit as imports collapse. We also uncover a global household debt cycle that partly predicts the severity of the global growth slowdown after 2007. Countries with a household debt cycle more correlated with the global household debt cycle experience a sharper decline in growth after an increase in domestic household debt. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomic Models ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles ; Money and Interest Rates ; Financial Economics ; Financial Institutions |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w21581 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579256 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Atif R. Mian,Amir Sufi,Emil Verner. Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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