| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w21637 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 21637 |
| Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison | |
| Kenneth Gillingham; William D. Nordhaus; David Anthoff; Geoffrey Blanford; Valentina Bosetti; Peter Christensen; Haewon McJeon; John Reilly; Paul Sztorc | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-10-19 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity. It estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insights on tail events. |
| 主题 | Development and Growth ; Growth and Productivity ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Energy ; Environment |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w21637 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579312 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kenneth Gillingham,William D. Nordhaus,David Anthoff,et al. Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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