全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Maybe Next Month? Temperature Shocks, Climate Change, and Dynamic Adjustments in Birth Rates

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w21681
来源ID	Working Paper 21681
	Maybe Next Month? Temperature Shocks, Climate Change, and Dynamic Adjustments in Birth Rates
	Alan Barreca; Olivier Deschenes; Melanie Guldi
发表日期	2015-11-02
出版年	2015
语种	英语
摘要	Dynamic adjustments could be a useful strategy for mitigating the costs of acute environmental shocks when timing is not a strictly binding constraint. To investigate whether such adjustments could apply to fertility, we estimate the effects of temperature shocks on birth rates in the United States between 1931 and 2010. Our innovative approach allows for presumably random variation in the distribution of daily temperatures to affect birth rates up to 24 months into the future. We find that additional days above 80 °F cause a large decline in birth rates approximately 8 to 10 months later. The initial decline is followed by a partial rebound in births over the next few months implying that populations can mitigate the fertility cost of temperature shocks by shifting conception month. This dynamic adjustment helps explain the observed decline in birth rates during the spring and subsequent increase during the summer. The lack of a full rebound suggests that increased temperatures due to climate change may reduce population growth rates in the coming century. As an added cost, climate change will shift even more births to the summer months when third trimester exposure to dangerously high temperatures increases. Based on our analysis of historical changes in the temperature-fertility relationship, we conclude air conditioning could be used to substantially offset the fertility costs of climate change.
主题	Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health ; Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Environment
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w21681
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579356
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Alan Barreca,Olivier Deschenes,Melanie Guldi. Maybe Next Month? Temperature Shocks, Climate Change, and Dynamic Adjustments in Birth Rates. 2015.