| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w21693 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 21693 |
| Bubble Investing: Learning from History | |
| William N. Goetzmann | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-11-02 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | History is important to the study of financial bubbles precisely because they are extremely rare events, but history can be misleading. The rarity of bubbles in the historical record makes the sample size for inference small. Restricting attention to crashes that followed a large increase in market level makes negative historical outcomes salient. In this paper I examine the frequency of large, sudden increases in market value in a broad panel data of world equity markets extending from the beginning of the 20th century. I find the probability of a crash conditional on a boom is only slightly higher than the unconditional probability. The chances that a market gave back it gains following a doubling in value are about 10%. In simple terms, bubbles are booms that went bad. Not all booms are bad. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; Financial Markets ; History ; Financial History |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w21693 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579368 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | William N. Goetzmann. Bubble Investing: Learning from History. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
| 个性服务 |
| 推荐该条目 |
| 保存到收藏夹 |
| 导出为Endnote文件 |
| 谷歌学术 |
| 谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
| [William N. Goetzmann]的文章 |
| 百度学术 |
| 百度学术中相似的文章 |
| [William N. Goetzmann]的文章 |
| 必应学术 |
| 必应学术中相似的文章 |
| [William N. Goetzmann]的文章 |
| 相关权益政策 |
| 暂无数据 |
| 收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
