| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w21719 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 21719 |
| The Tail that Wags the Economy: Beliefs and Persistent Stagnation | |
| Julian Kozlowski; Laura Veldkamp; Venky Venkateswaran | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-11-16 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The Great Recession was a deep downturn with long-lasting effects on credit, employment and output. While narratives about its causes abound, the persistence of GDP below pre-crisis trends remains puzzling. We propose a simple persistence mechanism that can be quantfied and combined with existing models. Our key premise is that agents don't know the true distribution of shocks, but use data to estimate it non-parametrically. Then, transitory events, especially extreme ones, generate persistent changes in beliefs and macro outcomes. Embedding this mechanism in a neoclassical model, we find that it endogenously generates persistent drops in economic activity after tail events. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w21719 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579394 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Julian Kozlowski,Laura Veldkamp,Venky Venkateswaran. The Tail that Wags the Economy: Beliefs and Persistent Stagnation. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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