| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w21803 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 21803 |
| Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response? | |
| Sydney C. Ludvigson; Sai Ma; Serena Ng | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-12-14 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Uncertainty about the future rises in recessions. But is uncertainty a source of business cycles or an endogenous response to them, and does the type of uncertainty matter? We propose a novel SVAR identification strategy to address these questions via inequality constraints on the structural shocks. We find that sharply higher macroeconomic uncertainty in recessions is often an endogenous response to output shocks, while uncertainty about financial markets is a likely source of output fluctuations. But the findings also suggest that macroeconomic uncertainty plays an important role in recessions, by substantially amplifying downturns caused by other shocks. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Money and Interest Rates ; Financial Economics ; Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w21803 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579477 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sydney C. Ludvigson,Sai Ma,Serena Ng. Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w21803.pdf（757KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
