| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w21856 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 21856 |
| America's First Great Moderation | |
| Joseph Davis; Marc D. Weidenmier | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-01-11 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We identify America’s First Great Moderation, a recession-free 16-year period from 1841 until 1856, that represents the longest economic expansion in U.S. history. Occurring in the wake of the debt-deleveraging cycle of the late 1830s, this “take-off” period’s high rates of economic growth and relatively-low volatility enabled the U.S. economy to escape downturns despite the absence of a central bank. Using new high frequency data on industrial production, we show that America’s First Great Moderation was primarily driven by a boom in transportation-goods investment, attributable to both the wider adoption of steam railroads and river boats and the high expected returns for massive wooden clipper ships following the discovery of gold in California. We do not find evidence that agriculture (i.e., cotton), domestic textile production, or British economic conditions played any significant role in this moderation. The First Great Moderation ended with a sharp decline in transportation investment and bank credit during the downturn of 1857-8 and the coming American Civil War. Our empirical analyses indicate that the low-volatility states derived for both annual industrial production and monthly stock prices during the First Great Moderation are similar to those estimated for the Second Great Moderation (1984-2007). |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; History ; Macroeconomic History |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w21856 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579530 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Joseph Davis,Marc D. Weidenmier. America's First Great Moderation. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w21856.pdf（858KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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