| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w21866
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 21866
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| Fragility of Purely Real Macroeconomic Models |
| Narayana Kocherlakota
|
| 发表日期 | 2016-01-11
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| 出版年 | 2016
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | Over the past thirty years, a great deal of business cycle research has been based on purely real models that abstract from the presence of nominal rigidities, and so (at least implicitly) assume that the Phillips curve is vertical. In this paper, I show that such models are fragile, in the sense that their implications change significantly when the Phillips curve is even slightly less than vertical. I consider a wide class of purely real macroeconomic models and perturb them by introducing a non-vertical Phillips curve. I show that in the perturbed models, if there is a lower bound on the nominal interest rate, then current outcomes necessarily depend on agents' beliefs about the long-run level of economic activity. The magnitude of this dependence becomes arbitrarily large as the slope of the Phillips curve becomes arbitrarily large in absolute value (closer to vertical). In contrast, the limiting purely real model ignores this form of monetary non-neutrality and macroeconomic instability. I conclude that purely real models are too incomplete to provide useful guides to questions about business cycles. I describe what elements should be added to such models in order to make them useful. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics
; Macroeconomic Models
; Monetary Policy
; Fiscal Policy
|
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w21866
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579540
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Narayana Kocherlakota. Fragility of Purely Real Macroeconomic Models. 2016.
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文件名：
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w21866.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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