| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w21899 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 21899 |
| Winners and Losers in International Trade: The Effects on U.S. Presidential Voting | |
| J. Bradford Jensen; Dennis P. Quinn; Stephen Weymouth | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-01-18 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper studies how international trade influences U.S. presidential elections. We expect the positive employment effects of expanding exports to increase support for the incumbent’s party, and job insecurity from import competition to diminish such support. Our national-level models show for the first time that increasing imports are associated with decreasing incumbent vote shares, and increasing exports correlate with increasing vote shares for incumbents. These effects are large and politically consequential. We also construct U.S. county-level measures of employment in high- and low-skill tradable activities. We find increases in incumbent vote shares in counties with concentrations of employment in high-skilled tradable goods and services, and decreases in counties with concentrations of employment in low-skilled manufactured goods. Incumbent parties are particularly vulnerable to losing votes in swing states with high concentrations of low-skilled manufacturing workers with increasing trade exposure. Thus there is an Electoral College incentive to protect this sector. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; Globalization and International Relations |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w21899 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579574 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | J. Bradford Jensen,Dennis P. Quinn,Stephen Weymouth. Winners and Losers in International Trade: The Effects on U.S. Presidential Voting. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w21899.pdf（963KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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