| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w21921 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 21921 |
| Overconfidence and Occupational Choice | |
| Edward P. Lazear | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-01-25 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | A statistical theory of overconfidence is proposed and applied to the issue of occupational choice. Individuals who can choose whether to engage in an activity or not must estimate their performance. The estimates have error and that error has positive expectation among those who engage in the activity. As a result, an unbiased ex ante estimate of performance in an occupatoin results in an ex post biased estimate of ability among those enter. The statistical theory of overconfidence provides a number of testable implications, most significant of which is that overconfidence should be more prevalent in occupations where estimates of ability are noisier. This and other implications are tested and found to hold using the Current Population Survey and Panel Study of Income Dynamics data. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Labor Economics ; Other ; Accounting, Marketing, and Personnel |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w21921 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579596 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Edward P. Lazear. Overconfidence and Occupational Choice. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w21921.pdf（244KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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