| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w21958 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 21958 |
| Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015 | |
| Carmen M. Reinhart; Vincent Reinhart; Christoph Trebesch | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-02-08 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data sources. We then document a strong overlap between the ebb and flow of financial capital, the commodity price super-cycle, and sovereign defaults since 1815. The results have implications for today, as many emerging markets are facing a double bust in capital inflows and commodity prices, making them vulnerable to crises. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Money and Interest Rates ; International Economics ; International Macroeconomics ; Globalization and International Relations ; Financial Economics ; History ; Macroeconomic History ; Financial History |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w21958 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579632 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Carmen M. Reinhart,Vincent Reinhart,Christoph Trebesch. Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w21958.pdf（214KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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