| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w22009
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 22009
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| Sluggish Inflation Expectations: A Markov Chain Analysis |
| Narayana R. Kocherlakota
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| 发表日期 | 2016-02-22
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| 出版年 | 2016
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | A large body of recent empirical work on inflation dynamics documents that current real variables (like unemployment or output gaps) have little explanatory power for future inflation. Motivated by these findings, I explore the properties of a wide class of models in which inflation expectations respond little, if at all, to real economic conditions. In this general context, I examine Markov equilibria to games in which the relevant forcing processes are Markov chains and the central bank chooses a short- term nominal interest rate at each date subject to a lower bound. I construct a simple numerical algorithm to solve for such Markov equilibria. I apply the algorithm to a numerical example. In the example, the economy can experience long periods of what looks like secular stagnation because households believe that there is a significant risk of a crisis (that is, a sharp decline in economic activity). Within the example, there are large benefits to being able to reduce the lower bound on the short-term nominal interest rate by as little as fifty basis points. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics
; Business Cycles
; Monetary Policy
|
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w22009
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579683
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Narayana R. Kocherlakota. Sluggish Inflation Expectations: A Markov Chain Analysis. 2016.
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文件名：
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w22009.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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