| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w22026 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 22026 |
| Decision-Making under the Gambler's Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires | |
| Daniel Chen; Tobias J. Moskowitz; Kelly Shue | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-02-29 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We find consistent evidence of negative autocorrelation in decision-making that is unrelated to the merits of the cases considered in three separate high-stakes field settings: refugee asylum court decisions, loan application reviews, and major league baseball umpire pitch calls. The evidence is most consistent with the law of small numbers and the gambler's fallacy – people underestimating the likelihood of sequential streaks occurring by chance – leading to negatively autocorrelated decisions that result in errors. The negative autocorrelation is stronger among more moderate and less experienced decision-makers, following longer streaks of decisions in one direction, when the current and previous cases share similar characteristics or occur close in time, and when decision-makers face weaker incentives for accuracy. Other explanations for negatively autocorrelated decisions such as quotas, learning, or preferences to treat all parties fairly, are less consistent with the evidence, though we cannot completely rule out sequential contrast effects as an alternative explanation. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Behavioral Economics ; Other ; Law and Economics ; Culture |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w22026 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579700 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Daniel Chen,Tobias J. Moskowitz,Kelly Shue. Decision-Making under the Gambler's Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w22026.pdf（1063KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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